000
WTPZ21 KNHC 010843
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM VANCE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212014
0900 UTC SAT NOV 01 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 102.7W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 265 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 102.7W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.3N 102.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z  9.7N 104.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 10.5N 106.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 11.6N 108.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 13.2N 110.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.1N 110.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  70SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 20.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0600Z 23.5N 106.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N 102.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG