000
WTPZ21 KNHC 222031
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  40
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC FRI AUG 22 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  50 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  989 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N 135.2W AT 22/2100Z
AT 22/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N 135.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 16.1N 134.7W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  10SE  10SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  70SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 17.0N 133.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  30SW  10NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 17.6N 132.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1800Z 18.2N 130.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1800Z 19.5N 129.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  20NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 26/1800Z 21.0N 130.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/1800Z 21.7N 133.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N 135.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS