000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161432
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
1500 UTC SAT AUG 16 2014
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 124.1W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  50SE  60SW 110NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 124.1W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 123.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.4N 125.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 18.3N 127.6W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 17.8N 129.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 17.5N 131.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 133.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 16.5N 134.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 16.8N 134.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.3N 124.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA