000
WTPZ21 KNHC 132050
TCMEP1

TROPICAL STORM KARINA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112014
2100 UTC WED AUG 13 2014

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.2N 112.6W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.1N 112.0W

FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 17.3N 114.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.4N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  20SW  50NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.6N 119.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 17.8N 121.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.2N 126.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  80NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 18.4N 129.6W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 18.0N 133.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.2N 112.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER STEWART