000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161431
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
1500 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 107.7W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  30SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.4N 107.7W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  9.2N 107.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z  9.9N 108.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.7N 110.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.2N 112.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 11.6N 113.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 13.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 13.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 13.5N 120.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.4N 107.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG