000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160856
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
0900 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.1N 106.9W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.9N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z  9.5N 108.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.2N 109.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.0N 111.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 11.6N 112.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 12.8N 115.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  50SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 14.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 14.5N 118.5W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.1N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE