000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160241
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
0300 UTC THU MAY 16 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  20SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  9.0N 105.9W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.8N 105.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z  9.5N 107.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 10.2N 109.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  50SE  30SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 10.9N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 11.6N 111.9W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...110NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 13.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  70SE  60SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.7N 116.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 16.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  9.0N 105.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN