000
WTPZ21 KNHC 152036
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP012013
2100 UTC WED MAY 15 2013
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.7N 105.1W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR  8.7N 105.1W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR  8.5N 104.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z  9.3N 106.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 10.0N 108.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 10.6N 109.8W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 11.1N 111.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 12.5N 114.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  70SW  90NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 14.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 15.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF  8.7N 105.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG