000
WTPZ21 KNHC 170240
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0300 UTC WED OCT 17 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* SANTA FE TO EL POCITO
* SAN EVARISTO TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM...
* NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  992 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......120NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE 270SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.6N 112.7W AT 17/0300Z
AT 17/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 25.1N 112.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.9N 113.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  70SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.0N 115.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.0N 118.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.6N 112.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG/PASCH