000 WTPZ21 KNHC 162041 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 2100 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... NONE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * EVARISTO TO MULEGE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO * NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 13 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 980 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 65 KT WITH GUSTS TO 80 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.7N 112.4W AT 16/2100Z AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 112.3W FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.5N 112.4W...INLAND MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 0NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 28.0N 113.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 40SW 40NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 29.0N 115.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.7N 112.4W NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA