000 WTPZ21 KNHC 161441 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 1500 UTC TUE OCT 16 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS REPLACED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR A PORTION OF THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SAN EVARISTO TO MULEGE A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SOUTH OF SANTA FE TO AGUA BLANCA * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM LA PAZ TO SOUTH OF SAN EVARISTO * EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NORTH OF EL POCITO TO PUNTA EUGENIA PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 17 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 970 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT. 64 KT....... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT....... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. 12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 270SE 150SW 120NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 23.8N 112.2W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.9N 112.2W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 25.8N 111.9W...INLAND MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 20SW 20NW. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 27.0N 112.8W...INLAND MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT. 50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 100SE 60SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.5N 114.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 29.5N 116.5W...OVER WATER MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 31.3N 121.4W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 23.8N 112.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER AVILA