000 WTPZ21 KNHC 152043 TCMEP1 HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP162012 2100 UTC MON OCT 15 2012 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A HURRICANE WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS * AGUA BLANCA TO SOUTH OF SANTA FE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO EL POCITO A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM- FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR 15 DEGREES AT 11 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 960 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 105 KT WITH GUSTS TO 125 KT. 64 KT....... 15NE 20SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT....... 30NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT....... 60NE 80SE 60SW 70NW. 12 FT SEAS..180NE 300SE 150SW 150NW. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.4N 114.2W AT 15/2100Z AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 114.4W FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.3N 113.5W MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT. 64 KT... 20NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 80NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 23.0N 112.9W MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 25SE 10SW 20NW. 50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 90SE 60SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.1N 112.7W MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT. 64 KT... 25NE 20SE 10SW 15NW. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW. 34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 26.6N 113.5W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 30NW. 34 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 29.0N 117.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z...DISSIPATED REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.4N 114.2W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z $$ FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN