000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151451
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1500 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FROM
SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO A TROPICAL WARNING.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL WATCH FROM NORTH OF
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
*  THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO
PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO TO EL POCITO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 270SE 120SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 114.7W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 114.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.1N 114.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 21.6N 113.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.2N 113.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 28.4N 116.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 114.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN/BROWN