000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150844
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0900 UTC MON OCT 15 2012
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM SANTA FE NORTHWARD TO PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANTA FE TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO MEXICO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR  10 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..135NE 160SE 100SW 135NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.2N 114.9W AT 15/0900Z
AT 15/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 115.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.0N 114.6W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 20.2N 113.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 22.8N 113.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 24.8N 113.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 27.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.2N 114.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI/STEWART