000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141437
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
1500 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  15SE  30SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 115.1W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 114.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.9N 115.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.6N 115.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.7N 114.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 22.1N 114.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  80SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 26.0N 114.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  60SE  30SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 28.5N 117.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 29.5N 121.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 115.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI