000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140851
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0900 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE  40SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 40NE   0SE  20SW  75NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 114.5W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 114.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 15.1N 115.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.6N 115.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 18.5N 115.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  10SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 21.1N 114.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 25.7N 114.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  10SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  50SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 28.6N 118.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 114.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN