000
WTPZ21 KNHC 140238
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP162012
0300 UTC SUN OCT 14 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.1W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 114.1W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 113.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.6N 114.8W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 15.8N 115.1W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 17.7N 115.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 19.9N 114.9W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  70SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 24.6N 114.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  70SW  70NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0000Z 27.5N 114.5W...OVER LAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.0N 116.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.2N 114.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/SARDI