000
WTPZ21 KNHC 122030
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112012
2100 UTC WED SEP 12 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
INTERESTS IN SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
KRISTY. ANY DEVIATION TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST TRACK WOULD
REQUIRE A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING FOR A PORTION OF EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.9W AT 12/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 106.9W AT 12/2100Z
AT 12/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.1N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 19.0N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1800Z 20.0N 109.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 21.0N 111.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 21.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.5N 116.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1800Z 25.0N 121.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 26.0N 122.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA