000
WTPZ21 KNHC 160230
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE FABIO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062012
0300 UTC MON JUL 16 2012
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 119.0W AT 16/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  25SE  25SW  30NW.
50 KT....... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT.......100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..240NE 180SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.8N 119.0W AT 16/0300Z
AT 16/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.6N 118.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 18.5N 120.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  20SE  20SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  70SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 19.6N 121.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  60SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.9N 121.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  20SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.3N 121.6W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0000Z 25.2N 121.2W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 26.2N 120.7W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.8N 119.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN