000
WTPZ21 KNHC 151444
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  38
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.6W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 185 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  40SE  40SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 106.6W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 106.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.8N 107.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.9N 107.9W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.7N 108.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.7N 109.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 14.7N 110.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 14.7N 111.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.5N 106.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN