000
WTPZ21 KNHC 150235
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  36
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0300 UTC SAT OCT 15 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.4W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 165 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  65SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..  0NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 106.4W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.8N 106.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  60SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  20SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  15SE  40SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 14.5N 108.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 15.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 35NE  20SE  20SW  35NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 15.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 14.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.7N 106.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG