000
WTPZ21 KNHC 142032
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  35
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.9W AT 14/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  65SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  90SE  90SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 106.9W AT 14/2100Z
AT 14/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.3N 106.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 17.2N 107.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  65SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.0N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  65SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 15.1N 107.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.7N 108.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.0N 109.8W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 15.0N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 106.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN