000
WTPZ21 KNHC 141431
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC FRI OCT 14 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.8W AT 14/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH OR 180 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.8W AT 14/1500Z
AT 14/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.8N 106.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 17.9N 106.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  40SE  40SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 16.6N 107.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.3N 107.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 14.8N 108.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 15.1N 109.2W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 15.5N 110.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BRENNAN