000
WTPZ21 KNHC 132031
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC THU OCT 13 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT.......  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 180SE 150SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.5W AT 13/2100Z
AT 13/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 106.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0600Z 18.4N 106.1W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 105.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...  0NE   0SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 15.5N 106.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 14.5N 107.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  45NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.5N 108.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 14.5N 109.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 106.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN