000
WTPZ21 KNHC 101444
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  18
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.7W AT 10/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  90 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 117.7W AT 10/1500Z
AT 10/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 118.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.1N 116.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  70SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 114.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.1N 112.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.6N 110.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 16.9N 107.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 17.1N 105.1W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 16.4N 103.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.0N 117.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN