000
WTPZ21 KNHC 100857
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0900 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.5W AT 10/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.5W AT 10/0900Z
AT 10/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N 118.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.0N 117.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0600Z 15.0N 115.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 14.9N 114.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.2N 112.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 16.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  70SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 17.0N 105.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0600Z 16.5N 104.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.9N 118.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BROWN