000
WTPZ21 KNHC 100240
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
0300 UTC MON OCT 10 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.7W AT 10/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE EAST OR  85 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE 120SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 118.7W AT 10/0300Z
AT 10/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N 119.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.4N 117.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.4N 116.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.2N 114.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.1N 112.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.2N 108.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0000Z 17.0N 105.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/0000Z 17.0N 103.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 118.7W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 10/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI