000
WTPZ21 KNHC 091442
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC SUN OCT 09 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.8W AT 09/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  55 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 210SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 119.8W AT 09/1500Z
AT 09/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.0N 120.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.5N 118.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.8N 117.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 15.8N 116.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 15.8N 111.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 17.6N 107.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 19.0N 106.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N 119.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN