000
WTPZ21 KNHC 081457
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC SAT OCT 08 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 121.0W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 345 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  986 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT.......  0NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 210SE  90SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 121.0W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.2N 121.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.6N 120.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 45NE  60SE  45SW  45NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.8N 120.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.0N 119.4W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 15.1N 118.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 15.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 16.0N 110.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 19.0N 107.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N 121.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/STEWART