000
WTPZ21 KNHC 072032
TCMEP1
 
HURRICANE IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
2100 UTC FRI OCT 07 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 120.9W AT 07/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  977 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 50NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..210NE 240SE  75SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.0N 120.9W AT 07/2100Z
AT 07/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.9N 120.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 14.2N 121.2W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  15SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 50NE  90SE  40SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 14.7N 121.2W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  15SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  90SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 14.8N 120.6W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 15.0N 119.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1800Z 15.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 16.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.0N 120.9W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH