000
WTPZ21 KNHC 061442
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM IRWIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP112011
1500 UTC THU OCT 06 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.8W AT 06/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE 120SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 116.8W AT 06/1500Z
AT 06/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 116.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 12.7N 117.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 13.0N 117.7W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 13.5N 117.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.8N 117.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.0N 117.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  50SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 14.5N 116.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/1200Z 15.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 116.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH