000
WTPZ21 KNHC 161438
TCMEP1
 
TROPICAL STORM FERNANDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP062011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 16 2011
 
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.5W AT 16/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   7 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.5W AT 16/1500Z
AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.3N 135.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  30SE  30SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 12.5N 137.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 12.8N 138.3W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 13.2N 139.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 14.2N 143.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  40NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 14.5N 147.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 15.0N 151.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.3N 134.5W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE