000
WTPZ21 KNHC 311437
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM HENRIETTE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
1500 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING TO MANZANILLO. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO FROM
LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO MANZANILLO. TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS
THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO CABO CORRIENTES. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS
NOW IN EFFECT FROM JUST WEST OF MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.  A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.1W AT 31/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 45NE  45SE  25SW  45NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 100.1W AT 31/1500Z
AT 31/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  99.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0000Z 16.4N 101.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 17.4N 102.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 45NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.3N 104.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 19.0N 106.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 20.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1200Z 22.5N 111.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1200Z 25.0N 113.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N 100.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA