000
WTPZ21 KNHC 310844
TCMEP1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112007
0900 UTC FRI AUG 31 2007
 
AT 2 AM PDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WESTWARD TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT ALONG PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC COAST
OF MEXICO FROM LAGUNAS DE CHACAHUA TO PUNTA SAN TELMO.  A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM WEST OF PUNTA SAN
TELMO TO MANZANILLO.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. 
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  99.3W AT 31/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT   9 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  99.3W AT 31/0900Z
AT 31/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  98.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1800Z 16.0N 100.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/0600Z 16.9N 102.1W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 45NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.8N 103.7W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.5N 105.3W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 19.5N 108.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N 110.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/0600Z 23.5N 112.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  99.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 31/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB