000
WTPZ21 KNHC 162030
TCMEP1
HURRICANE COSME FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP062007
2100 UTC MON JUL 16 2007
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 131.4W AT 16/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  987 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  20SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.5N 131.4W AT 16/2100Z
AT 16/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.3N 130.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 14.9N 132.9W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 15.2N 134.9W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE   0SE   0SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 15.6N 137.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  30SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 16.0N 139.7W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 17.5N 145.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 75NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 18.5N 151.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1800Z 19.0N 157.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.5N 131.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 17/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI