000
WTPZ21 KNHC 291435
TCMEP1
TROPICAL STORM ALVIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP012007
1500 UTC TUE MAY 29 2007
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.2W AT 29/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.2W AT 29/1500Z
AT 29/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.6N 114.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 12.5N 114.8W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 12.4N 115.6W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 12.4N 116.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 12.5N 117.9W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 12.5N 119.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 12.5N 120.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/1200Z 12.5N 121.5W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.6N 114.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 29/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN