000
WTNT25 KNHC 160846
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
0900 UTC SAT SEP 16 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  45.3W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  30SE  30SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.9N  45.3W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  45.0W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 19.6N  46.4W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 90NE   0SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.5N  48.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  60SE   0SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 23.1N  49.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 24.5N  51.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  80SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.9N  53.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 70NE  60SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 140SE 100SW 120NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 27.2N  55.1W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 80NE  60SE  50SW  70NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 31.0N  58.4W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 35.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.9N  45.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PAPIN