000
WTNT25 KNHC 152036
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
2100 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  44.0W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT  11 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  44.0W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.9N  43.7W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 16.7N  45.0W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 18.5N  46.6W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  40SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 20.4N  48.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  40SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 22.0N  50.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 23.6N  51.7W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...140NE 120SE  70SW 110NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1800Z 25.1N  53.6W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE  90SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1800Z 28.0N  57.3W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1800Z 32.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N  44.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN