000
WTNT25 KNHC 151453
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152023
ISSUED BY THE NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1500 UTC FRI SEP 15 2023
 
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  43.8W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  43.8W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.0N  43.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 15.5N  44.7W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 40NE   0SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 17.2N  46.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 90NE  40SE   0SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 18.9N  47.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...100NE  60SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 20.5N  49.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE   0SW  40NW.
34 KT...110NE  80SE  60SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 22.0N  51.2W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 23.4N  52.9W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...140NE 130SE 100SW 130NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 26.0N  56.8W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 29.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N  43.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER CHURCHILL/BLAKE/LAMERS