000
WTNT25 KNHC 250239
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  31
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0300 UTC WED SEP 25 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BERMUDA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  68.7W AT 25/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OR  25 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  996 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT.......130NE 110SE   0SW   0NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 150SE  90SW 150NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 31.4N  68.7W AT 25/0300Z
AT 25/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 31.3N  68.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 25/1200Z 32.2N  67.3W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 33.0N  64.9W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/1200Z 33.8N  62.3W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 27/0000Z 34.4N  59.9W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 28/0000Z 34.0N  56.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  30 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 29/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 31.4N  68.7W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 25/0600Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 25/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN