000
WTNT25 KNHC 220859
TCMAT5

TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
0900 UTC SUN SEP 22 2019

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

INTERESTS IN BERMUDA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  66.9W AT 22/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT  10 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 40NE  40SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE  90SE   0SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE  90SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 25.0N  66.9W AT 22/0900Z
AT 22/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.5N  66.6W

FORECAST VALID 22/1800Z 26.3N  67.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE   0SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/0600Z 27.6N  68.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT...110NE 110SE  30SW  60NW.

FORECAST VALID 23/1800Z 29.0N  68.3W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...130NE 120SE  40SW  70NW.

FORECAST VALID 24/0600Z 30.4N  68.6W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT...140NE 150SE  50SW  80NW.

FORECAST VALID 25/0600Z 34.0N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  60SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...180NE 150SE 110SW  90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 26/0600Z 39.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 27/0600Z 43.0N  47.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 25.0N  66.9W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 22/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE