000
WTNT25 KNHC 191452
TCMAT5
 
HURRICANE JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL102019
1500 UTC THU SEP 19 2019
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBUDA
* ANGUILLA
* ST. MAARTEN
* ST. MARTIN
* ST. BARTHELEMY
* SABA AND ST. EUSTATIUS
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF JERRY.  ADDITIONAL WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED LATER
TODAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 295 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  65 KT WITH GUSTS TO  80 KT.
64 KT....... 10NE  10SE   0SW  10NW.
50 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 90NE  60SE  30SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  54.4W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.4N  53.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.5N  56.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 50NE  40SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.5N  59.3W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
34 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.5N  62.1W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 20.7N  64.8W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  10SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  68.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  70SE  40SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 26.5N  70.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 30.5N  67.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.8N  54.4W
 
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 19/1800Z
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE