000 WTNT25 KNHC 161448 TCMAT5 POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL152017 1500 UTC SAT SEP 16 2017 CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY... THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR ST. LUCIA. THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR MARTINIQUE AND GUADELOUPE. THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR DOMINICA. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT... A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR... * ST. LUCIA * MARTINIQUE * GUADELOUPE * DOMINICA A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS. INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 50.5W AT 16/1500Z POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 40 NM PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 19 KT ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT. WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT. REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 50.5W AT 16/1500Z AT 16/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 49.7W FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 12.8N 52.8W...TROPICAL STORM MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT. 34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 13.6N 55.1W MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT. 34 KT... 70NE 40SE 20SW 50NW. FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 14.3N 56.9W MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 50SE 20SW 60NW. FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.0N 58.6W MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 20SE 0SW 30NW. 34 KT... 80NE 60SE 40SW 70NW. FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N 61.3W MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT. 50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW. 34 KT... 90NE 60SE 50SW 70NW. EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM ON DAY 4 AND 200 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 17.6N 64.0W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 18.7N 67.3W MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT. REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.2N 50.5W NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/2100Z $$ FORECASTER CANGIALOSI