000
WTNT25 KNHC 082050
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
2100 UTC THU SEP 08 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
NONE.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  92.3W AT 08/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OR 160 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  995 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT.......  0NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT....... 45NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  92.3W AT 08/2100Z
AT 08/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.7N  92.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 19.7N  92.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 20.2N  92.3W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT...  0NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 20NE  60SE  60SW   0NW.
34 KT... 60NE  90SE 120SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0600Z 20.9N  92.8W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
64 KT... 15NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT... 30NE  45SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT... 70NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1800Z 21.6N  93.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  90SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 22.5N  94.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  45SE  45SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1800Z 23.0N  94.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 23.5N  95.0W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.7N  92.3W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 09/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN