000
WTNT25 KNHC 081456
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM NATE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL152011
1500 UTC THU SEP 08 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH ALONG THE
NORTHWEST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CHILITEPEC TO CELESTUN
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MEXICO FROM CELESTUN TO PROGRESO
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  92.4W AT 08/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  25 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 145 DEGREES AT   1 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 45NE  90SE 120SW  80NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  92.4W AT 08/1500Z
AT 08/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.3N  92.4W
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 20.4N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT...  0NE  30SE  45SW   0NW.
34 KT... 45NE  90SE 120SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 21.0N  92.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 20NE  30SE  45SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  75SE  90SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 21.8N  92.7W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  45SW  45NW.
34 KT... 70NE  70SE  80SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 10/1200Z 22.5N  93.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE  90SE  80SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1200Z 23.1N  93.8W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  40SE  40SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  90SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 12/1200Z 23.6N  94.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 24.0N  95.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  92.4W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN