000
WTNT25 KNHC 032054
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
2100 UTC WED AUG 03 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS
 
INTERESTS IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  71.0W AT 03/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE   0SW  20NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  60SE   0SW  40NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N  71.0W AT 03/2100Z
AT 03/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N  70.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 17.5N  72.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 19.5N  74.2W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0600Z 21.5N  76.0W
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1800Z 23.5N  77.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 27.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT... 90NE  60SE  25SW  50NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 31.0N  77.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 34.0N  71.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N  71.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA