000
WTNT25 KNHC 021450
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
1500 UTC TUE AUG 02 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.
 
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR HAITI HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
* HAITI
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
 
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  63.6W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  50 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT IS STATIONARY
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  63.6W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.3N  63.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 15.7N  66.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE   5SE   0SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 16.5N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 17.5N  70.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 75NE  45SE  45SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 19.0N  73.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  35 KT...GUSTS  45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 22.5N  76.0W...OVER WATER
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 26.5N  78.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 30.0N  78.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.3N  63.6W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA