000
WTNT25 KNHC 012330
TCMAT5
 
TROPICAL STORM EMILY SPECIAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       AL052011
2330 UTC MON AUG 01 2011
 
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
ISLANDS OF GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND
THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC.
 
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR HAITI.
 
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* DOMINICA
* GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...AND MARIE GALANTE
* PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES AND CULEBRA
* THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
* ST. KITTS...NEVIS...MONSTSERRAT...AND ANTIGUA
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 36
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  62.0W AT 01/2330Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE   0SE   0SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.2N  62.0W AT 01/2330Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.1N  60.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 15.6N  63.5W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  15SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 16.5N  66.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  15SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 17.4N  68.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 15NE   0SE   0SW  15NW.
34 KT... 60NE  30SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 18.4N  70.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  15SE   0SW  30NW.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 21.0N  74.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  45SE  30SW  60NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 175 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.0N  77.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 26.0N  79.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.2N  62.0W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN