000
WTNT25 KNHC 160848
TCMAT5
HURRICANE OMAR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
0900 UTC THU OCT 16 2008
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. MARTIN/MAARTEN...
SABA...ST. EUSTATIUS...ST. BARTHELEMY...AND ANGUILLA.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS AND THE ISLANDS OF VIEQUES AND CULEBRA HAS BEEN
DISCONTINUED.
 
AT 5 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BRITISH VIRGIN
ISLANDS HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE ISLANDS OF ST. KITTS AND NEVIS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...AND
MONTSERRAT.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  63.2W AT 16/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  22 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  964 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 50NE  50SE  40SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE 100SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 120SE 100SW  90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 19.1N  63.2W AT 16/0900Z
AT 16/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  63.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 21.7N  61.0W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 26.0N  58.5W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/1800Z 30.0N  55.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  40SE  25SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  50SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 125SE 100SW  60NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 18/0600Z 33.5N  52.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  45NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 19/0600Z 37.0N  45.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  75SE  60SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 150SE 125SW 100NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 20/0600Z 40.0N  37.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 42.0N  25.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 19.1N  63.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA