000
WTNT25 KNHC 140830
TCMAT5
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL152008
0900 UTC TUE OCT 14 2008
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE EXTREME
EASTERN PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO CABO
ENGANO.
 
INTERESTS IN THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  69.2W AT 14/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST OR 130 DEGREES AT   2 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.3N  69.2W AT 14/0900Z
AT 14/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N  69.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1800Z 14.6N  68.9W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0600Z 15.3N  68.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE   0SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 16.6N  67.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 18.3N  65.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  25SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 21.6N  62.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/0600Z 26.0N  59.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 19/0600Z 31.0N  57.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.3N  69.2W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/1500Z
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH